Figure AI seeks $40B valuation in SPV-driven round — but the lead investors raise eyebrows

Summary

Figure AI is seeking a $40 billion valuation in a funding round targeting $1 billion to $2 billion, with a term sheet already in hand. The round is being driven by special purpose vehicles (SPVs) managed by Align Ventures, a New York-based early-stage firm, and Parkway Venture Capital, an early-stage deep tech investor—both prior backers of the company. The valuation represents a 15x jump from Figure's prior $2.6 billion valuation, a step-up that has drawn skepticism in Silicon Valley.

The structural red flags

Align Ventures' portfolio consists almost entirely of CPG companies—Billy, Care/Of, Codery, The Farmer's Dog, Figs—with no public deep tech investments. Parkway's managing partner has sat on Figure's board since May 2023. The combination raises a credibility question: neither firm typically leads growth-stage capital rounds at this scale, and a $300 million to $400 million SPV from either would represent concentration far beyond their typical deployment. The term sheet itself carries little weight without an anchor from a tier-one growth fund, and terms are non-binding. One observer directly stated the skepticism: "I actually don't believe that major New York City investment banks would be able to fill a $300 million SPV into Figure at $40 billion"—though filling it at a $5 billion valuation would be plausible.

There are incentive structures at play. Parkway holds an earlier position in Figure; marking it up 15x at a new valuation delivers a significant paper gain to its LPs. CEO Brett Adcock also controls Archer Aviation, a SPAC-listed electric aircraft company that has risen from a $600 million market cap at IPO to nearly $5 billion today. That momentum may create pressure to justify a higher valuation for Figure or risk a narrative collapse.

The fundamentals don't anchor the price

Figure has raised $745 million to date from Microsoft, OpenAI, and Nvidia. It has hired 200+ engineers and AI hardware staff. The company plans to build 100,000 robots over four years and has secured BMW as a first customer. It unveiled Helix, an internal AI model for robot control, in partnership with OpenAI.

At typical robot pricing—$100,000 per unit, competitive with Chinese competitor Unitree—100,000 units would generate $10 billion in revenue. A $40 billion valuation on that forward revenue implies a 4x forward multiple, which observers described as "still crazy" for a company with zero current revenue. For context, Anthropic is raising at $58 billion with $1 billion in annual recurring revenue today; Figure has neither revenue nor a clear path to unit economics that would support margins at scale.

The counterargument exists: Figure could frame its TAM as the global labor market. Labor represents roughly 60% of a $100 trillion global economy, or $60 trillion. If Figure captures 2% of that market, the math supports a trillion-dollar business. That framing is theoretically sound but relies on winning a decadelong competition against Tesla's robotics effort and other entrants, while competing against Chinese manufacturers (Unitree and others) that historically sell at losses to capture market share.

The broader skepticism

Several structural tensions undermine credibility. Rivian, a hard-tech manufacturer competing with Tesla, is worth less than $40 billion. Anduril, which just raised $28 billion from IVY to become a defense-tech powerhouse, is valued at roughly half of Figure's price—and Anduril has revenue and government contracts. Figure has neither.

The form of the raise itself signals caution: instead of a traditional Series C or growth round, Adcock is using SPVs, which spread risk across smaller, more distributed LPs and reduce the veto power of sophisticated mega-funds. That choice may reflect that no traditional growth powerhouse (Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund) wanted to lead at this valuation, potentially due to conflicts—many of those firms are already invested in Elon Musk's companies (SpaceX, X, Neuralink, Tesla), which are now competing in humanoid robotics.

Adcock's fundraising track record is genuine. His cold-email template to investors converts at 70% to a meeting; he has raised $1.7 billion across his companies via cold outreach. He has successfully recruited world-class talent and maintained narrative momentum. But as one observer noted: "It's hard to take a term sheet from Align super seriously" when the credibility rests on firms without deep-tech track records and the round structure avoids the backing of tier-one growth capital.

The final point landed squarely: Figure could have raised a 3x to 4x round at $5 billion to $10 billion, sustained credibility with scrappy engineering narratives, and avoided the frothiness that now defines the round. Instead, $40 billion reads as marketing, not pricing—and in a market where believability is scarce, that distinction matters.