TikTok's US business reportedly valued at just $14B — roughly 1x revenue and far below prior projections
Sep 25, 2025
Key Points
- TikTok's US business is valued at $14 billion in a proposed deal, roughly 1x revenue and a 65% haircut from prior $40 billion projections cited by JD Vance.
- The deal would spin out TikTok US as a joint venture with ByteDance's stake cut below 20% to satisfy national security requirements, with Oracle and Silver Lake as expected buyers.
- The dramatic valuation collapse suggests TikTok's US engagement metrics may have been inflated or growth stalled after Instagram launched Reels, pricing what was once a high-growth asset like a mature, unprofitable platform.
Summary
TikTok's US business is being valued at roughly $14 billion in a proposed deal—about 1x revenue and a dramatic haircut from earlier projections of $40 billion. Vice President JD Vance cited the figure as the deal advances under pressure from the Trump administration.
The structure would spin out TikTok US as a new joint venture, reducing ByteDance's stake below 20% to satisfy national security requirements. Expected buyers Oracle and Silver Lake would welcome the low valuation, but ByteDance and its existing investors may view it as daylight robbery. A $14 billion price tag values a platform with massive US user engagement like a mature, low-growth company, well below comparable tech acquisitions and far below what Elon Musk paid for Twitter.
Why the collapse in valuation remains unclear. One possibility is that TikTok's US user metrics have been inflated for years, a common bootstrap tactic for new social networks. The app's early reputation for viral reach, with new creators routinely seeing hundreds of thousands of views on early videos, may have masked underlying saturation or slower growth. Another factor is that TikTok US may have stopped growing after Instagram launched Reels, similar to Snapchat's stall after Stories launched. If the US business stopped growing, loses money, and relies on inflated engagement metrics, the $14 billion price becomes more plausible, though it still represents a stunning repricing from prior expectations.
For context, Perplexity is valued at $20 billion. Mark Zuckerberg would likely have paid far more, with estimates suggesting $200 billion or higher, but regulators would never have allowed Meta to acquire TikTok. The deal leaves NVIDIA as the only major chip company without a social network asset.