Waymo hits 876,000 rides per month in California — a 6x increase year-over-year
Oct 23, 2025
Key Points
- Waymo operates 876,000 rides per month in California, a sixfold jump year-over-year, forcing Uber to decide whether to keep the autonomous service standalone or integrate it into its platform.
- Waymo's higher per-trip costs versus Uber could fragment the rideshare market into premium autonomous and budget human-driven tiers, unless unit economics improve enough to compete on price.
- Waymo has supply-side momentum and density-driven unit economics in California; Uber holds distribution and habit, making the outcome hinge on whether operational efficiency or consumer convenience dominates.
Summary
Waymo is operating at 876,000 rides per month in California, a sixfold increase over the past year and a 69-fold jump since August 2023. The autonomous vehicle company's growth has become material enough that it is now a genuine strategic question for Uber whether Waymo remains a standalone app or integrates into Uber's platform long-term.
The answer hinges on consumer behavior that neither company fully understands yet. The question is not whether self-driving works, but how consumers will use it. Will riders default to Uber and request a Waymo when available in a single app, or will they maintain separate apps, using Waymo for routine rides and Uber for edge cases like mountain routes that require human drivers? Uber and Waymo are effectively running an experiment by market, with some cities offering Waymo as a standalone app and others integrating it into Uber.
Price will likely matter. Waymo rides currently cost more per trip than Uber. If that gap persists, the rideshare market could bifurcate again, this time not between Uber and Lyft, but between Waymo as a premium service and Uber as the budget option. That mirrors the college-era split where riders chose Lyft for lower prices. The alternative is that Waymo becomes ubiquitous enough to compete on price, collapsing the gap and pulling Uber toward integration rather than competition.
The near-term dynamic is asymmetric. Waymo has scale momentum and unit economics that work in dense California markets. Uber has distribution, consumer habit, and the ability to offer Waymo as an option without cannibalizing its core business. Which matters more—supply-side efficiency or demand-side convenience—will determine whether Waymo stays independent or gets absorbed.