Stock market and job openings diverge since ChatGPT launch; Amazon targets 30,000 layoffs
Oct 27, 2025
Key Points
- Stock market gains and job openings have diverged sharply since ChatGPT's launch, but the causation lies in Federal Reserve rate hikes and the deflation of COVID stimulus, not AI adoption itself.
- The stock market's 75% gain is concentrated in seven to eight mega-cap companies that employ far fewer people per dollar of market cap than the broader economy, allowing equities to soar while job openings fall 33%.
- Amazon's 30,000 corporate job cuts exemplify how CEOs use AI as post-hoc justification for workforce reductions needed after over-hiring during stimulus years, rather than cutting because AI replaced workers at scale.
Summary
The stock market has climbed 75% since ChatGPT's launch while job openings have fallen 33%, a divergence widely read as evidence that AI is destroying employment. The actual inflection point was the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and the deflation of COVID-era stimulus, not AI adoption.
Mark Andreessen called the comparison "particularly trippy chart crime." The break in the two metrics happened exactly when the Fed hiked rates and the stimulus bubble popped. Yet the AI narrative has overshadowed the monetary story.
Capital concentration explains much of the gap. The stock market's gains are concentrated in seven to eight mega-cap companies that employ far fewer people per dollar of market cap than the broader economy. More jobs can disappear while equities soar if the gains accrue to capital-light businesses.
CEOs are using AI as cover for workforce reductions that reflect over-hiring during the stimulus years, not technological displacement at scale. Microsoft has run multiple layoffs this year under the AI-efficiency framing. Amazon's announcement of 30,000 corporate job cuts fits the pattern—necessary restructuring rebranded as optimization.
Companies are using AI as post-hoc justification for cuts they needed to make anyway. The stock-jobs divergence tells a story about monetary policy and capital concentration, not automation.