Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi: 22% trip growth, $9.8B free cash flow, and autonomous vehicles are additive not replacement

Summary

Uber posted strong Q4 results. Trip growth hit 22%, putting the business on a 15 billion annual trip run rate, roughly 40 million trips per day. EBITDA rose 35% year-over-year while free cash flow climbed to $9.8 billion, up 40%. Mobility grew 19% and Uber Eats exceeded a $100 billion run rate with 26% growth in the quarter.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi attributes the results to three factors. The business is supply-led: more drivers and restaurants on the platform lower ETAs and expand selection, which drives conversion. Uber now has nearly 10 million drivers and couriers and over 1 million merchants. Cross-platform integration is maturing. About 30% of Eats-first trips convert to riders, and the app surfaces Eats and grocery offers alongside ride requests. This required years of careful product tuning to avoid degrading the core ride experience. The company recently promoted Andrew McDonald, global mobility head for 12 years, to president and COO, consolidating rides and eats under a single P&L. The Uber One membership program now has 46 million members representing close to 50% of gross bookings. Members spend three times more than non-members, and customers using both Eats and Rides spend three times more than single-product users.

Khosrowshahi draws a lesson from his Expedia tenure. The company prioritized customer acquisition over supply, while Booking.com focused on supply depth in Europe and built a stronger platform. He views that as a strategic error and has inverted the logic at Uber.

Autonomous vehicles as demand accelerant

Uber's investor presentation emphasizes that autonomous vehicles are additive to demand, not replacement-only. In markets where Uber has launched AVs, customer acquisition is accelerating. More striking: autonomous vehicles on Uber's platform show 30-plus percent higher utilization than those operating on standalone platforms. Fleet operators already renting cars to human drivers are now operating autonomous fleets on Uber's behalf. Hardware ownership will likely be financed by private equity and debt markets, similar to rental car fleets today. Distribution and demand remain Uber's core advantage.

OEM dynamics shifting

Three years ago, OEM conversations centered on Level 2 driver-assistance because the unit economics were compelling. L2 is proving less attractive than expected since users still monitor the road. The consumer experience that works is full autonomy. OEM conversations are now turning constructive around L3 and L4. Lucid is building vehicles with Neuro technology and will integrate with Uber. NVIDIA has entered the stack as a full-stack provider of sensors, compute architecture, and software, lending credibility to the ecosystem.

Khosrowshahi's 10-year thesis: every new car sold is L4-capable, and Uber ETAs drop to 20 seconds.

Societal implications

Autonomy could reshape settlement patterns. Suburbs are already growing twice as fast as cities in Uber's data, a trend that accelerated post-COVID. Autonomous vehicles will make longer commutes viable, freeing up 30% of urban land currently devoted to parking. Hardware costs for sensors and compute are falling. Over two or three generations of vehicles, this should make mobility affordable to a much larger population.

Off-platform distribution

Uber is integrating with OpenAI's ChatGPT so users can request rides through voice. The company is building agents within the Uber app. Drivers can use voice to understand earnings, customers can order via voice. Apple Intelligence and Siri integration represent another off-platform channel. Mark Gurman suggested Siri has enabled Uber calls for about a decade, but uptake has been limited until now.

Khosrowshahi's stance is pragmatic: users can request through Siri, ChatGPT, or the app. Uber wins if the service gets used often. One caveat exists: the company operates a $2 billion advertising business. If Apple Intelligence or other voice interfaces subsume that business, it could hurt. Khosrowshahi believes a well-made app will retain direct users and that strong consumer products are the North Star. Google Maps once surface-level integrated Lyft and Uber content, yet Uber's app remained the dominant channel.