Netflix vs. Paramount bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery intensifies
Feb 19, 2026
Key Points
- Netflix's odds of winning the Warner Brothers Discovery deal have collapsed to 35% from 72% in December, even as the company signals willingness to raise its $27.75-per-share bid.
- Paramount's competing $30-per-share offer for the entire company values WBD's linear TV assets, which Netflix does not want, making the bids structurally incomparable and forcing shareholders to value legacy networks separately.
- Netflix holds $9 billion in cash and has matching rights on any improved Paramount offer, giving it room to bid higher before a shareholder vote scheduled for March 20th.
Summary
Netflix is open to raising its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, though its acquisition odds have collapsed since December. Market probability for Netflix winning the deal now stands at 35%, down from 72% in December.
Netflix currently bid $27.75 per share, or $82.7 billion, for WBD's studio and streaming businesses. Paramount's competing offer is $30 per share, or $108 billion for the entire company, including Discovery Global's linear TV assets like CNN and HGTV.
Netflix holds roughly $9 billion in cash and equivalents as of December 31st, giving it room to increase its offer if Paramount sweetens its bid. Under the merger agreement, Netflix has the right to match any improved offer from Paramount.
WBD has given Paramount until the end of Monday to submit a best-and-final offer, with a shareholder vote on Netflix's proposal scheduled for March 20th. CEO David Zaslav signaled continued support for the Netflix deal in a letter to the Paramount board on Tuesday, stating WBD "continues to recommend and remain fully committed to our transaction with Netflix."
The two bids target different assets. Netflix wants only HBO Max and the studio IP including Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, and DC Comics. Paramount is bidding for the entire company, including linear TV channels that Netflix does not want. Shareholders and the board must value those legacy network assets separately to determine which deal is actually more valuable.
Price will likely be the deciding factor. Regulatory and funding concerns exist around both deals, but at a high enough offer, those risks become secondary.