Netflix vs. Paramount bidding war for Warner Brothers intensifies, DOJ opens antitrust investigation
Feb 23, 2026
Key Points
- Netflix and Paramount's bidding war for Warner Brothers heads to a shareholder vote on March 20, with Paramount favored at 54% odds and Netflix at 36% as Paramount readies a $32-per-share counteroffer.
- The DOJ opens an antitrust investigation into Netflix's deal, focusing on whether it reduces content creators' negotiating leverage by consolidating the buyer base rather than Netflix's modest streaming market share gains.
- Exclusive licensing of content for AI training emerges as a new competitive front, with Disney-OpenAI Sora deals raising questions about whether Warner Brothers' DC Comics properties could become locked out of competitor AI systems.
Summary
Netflix and Paramount are bidding for Warner Brothers. Market odds on Kalshi show Paramount at 54% and Netflix at 36%. Paramount's revised offer is expected to reach $32 per share, with final bids due imminently and a shareholder vote scheduled for March 20.
Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos argued publicly that Netflix's deal poses no competition risk. He pointed out that Netflix would grow from 9% to 10% market share in streaming, claiming there is no concentration risk. He emphasized the strategic value of acquiring a century-old studio with a strong theatrical track record, framing the deal as an investment in Warner Brothers' legacy.
The Department of Justice has opened an antitrust investigation into Netflix's proposed takeover. The DOJ is scrutinizing whether Netflix wields anticompetitive leverage over creators. While Netflix's overall streaming market share gain appears modest, the deal materially reduces the number of buyers available to content creators. For independent producers making documentaries or other content, negotiating leverage shrinks from multiple bidders down to essentially one dominant player. This buyer consolidation risk is distinct from and potentially more material than Netflix's streaming market share.
A secondary concern involves exclusive IP licensing. Disney has reportedly struck deals with OpenAI's Sora for generative AI training. There is speculation about whether such deals include exclusivity clauses that would prevent competitors from licensing Warner Brothers properties, which include DC Comics franchises like Superman and Batman. Content licensing exclusivity in AI training could become as competitive a battleground as theatrical and streaming distribution.