Tyler Cowen says lock in now: AI will lower your future human capital value, so work harder today
Mar 16, 2026
Key Points
- Tyler Cowen argues workers should maximize earnings and upskill now, reasoning that AI will erode future human capital value regardless of whether it destroys jobs or creates opportunity.
- Cowen presents three parallel strategies for the AI transition: lock in current high wages, invest immediately in AI skills to avoid obsolescence, or use earnings to buy capital and land assets.
- The underlying logic sidesteps uncertainty about AI's labor impact by claiming the optimal move is identical either way: act decisively now rather than wait for clarity.
Summary
Tyler Cowen argues that workers should lock in earnings and skills now, before AI erodes the value of their human capital. If strong AI will lower future wages, current compensation is relatively high compared to what's coming, making it rational to work harder today to maximize earnings while they're still valuable. He adds a second angle: if AI can boost human capital, workers should invest in AI skills immediately to avoid falling behind. A third option is to use current earnings to buy capital and land assets.
Cowen sidesteps the usual binary of "AI destroys jobs" versus "AI creates opportunity." Instead, he presents two parallel strategies that both require increased effort. A commenter illustrates the tension with a historical analogy: a master carriage maker in Belgium around the time automobiles were invented could either maximize orders for carriages while demand lasted or learn the new technology as fast as possible. Both paths demand more work but point in opposite directions, a paradox that captures the real strategic choice.
Regardless of which way AI goes, workers benefit from acting now rather than waiting. Cowen doesn't resolve the uncertainty about AI's ultimate impact on labor. He argues it doesn't matter. The move is the same: work harder, upskill faster, or accumulate assets while current income is highest.