San Francisco real estate is booming: median family home now ~$3M as AI liquidity floods the market

Summary

San Francisco's median family home price has climbed to roughly $3 million as AI company liquidity floods the residential market, according to Rohin Dhar, a top-producing real estate agent in the city.

Dhar traces the market's recovery to late 2025, after a sharp downturn that began in late 2022 when interest rates rose. During 2020-2021, San Francisco prices had defied gravity despite pandemic exodus. Zero interest rates and liquidity events kept values climbing even as people fled. When rates rose, that liquidity dried up. Prices crashed through 2022, 2023, and 2024. By end of 2025, a trickle of activity emerged, followed by sustained upward momentum through early 2026.

The baseline entry point for a family home now stands at approximately $3 million, up from around $2 million a year ago. A family home means four people, two or three bedrooms, parking, and a second bathroom. Competition at every price point has intensified dramatically. All-cash offers no longer guarantee victory. At any given listing, one-third to one-half of bidders may be all-cash buyers. A $5-6 million house can attract 15 offers. Winning requires the highest price and best terms, not a single decisive advantage.

Dhar attributes the boom roughly evenly to two forces. Half stems from perception that San Francisco itself is improving. The mayor's leadership, walking safety, energy, and the sense that the city reclaimed its identity as a place to invent the future all matter. The other half comes from the concentration of two major AI labs, including OpenAI, now based in San Francisco proper rather than distributed across the Peninsula as in previous tech booms. While San Francisco hosted successful tech companies before, it never anchored the caliber of dominant players like Meta or Google until now.

Buyers navigating this market have limited levers. All-cash status, while advantageous, is not decisive. The real edge comes from identifying properties with less competition. That means homes needing renovation, off-market listings known to few, or neighborhoods slightly out of favor. Dhar stays hyper-focused on San Francisco proper and avoids Marin Valley, Oakland, or California Forever, arguing that winning in this market demands encyclopedic local knowledge. Undervalued neighborhoods are shifting. Bernal Heights, Knob Hill, and the hills adjacent to Noe Valley remain less expensive than pack-in areas like Noe Valley and Pacific Heights, though prices are rising across the board.