Record M&A quarter: 22 deals over $10B announced globally in Q1 2026
Apr 2, 2026
Key Points
- Q1 2026 saw 22 mega-deals valued at $10 billion or more announced globally, a record surpassing the previous high of 21 deals in Q4 2015.
- Companies are racing to close large transactions before anticipated tightening of antitrust enforcement, while smaller deals stall as mid-market activity cools.
- Private credit faces a legitimacy crisis as Cliff Water and peers suffer steep redemptions, with investors spooked by defaults and structural vulnerabilities in the once-booming asset class.
Summary
Q1 2026 delivered the busiest quarter for mega-deals on record. Twenty-two transactions valued at $10 billion or more closed globally, surpassing the previous record of 21 deals in Q4 2015. Total deal value rose roughly 29% year-over-year, but the number of smaller deals fell more than 17% as mid-market activity cooled.
Unilever's $65 billion food-and-spice combination with McCormick and Cisco's $29 billion acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot led the quarter. Amazon's $50 billion equity investment in OpenAI, announced in February, also qualifies as a mega-deal. Estée Lauder is in discussions to acquire Spanish beauty group Pig Brands. Other major transactions in motion include Absolut buying Jack Daniels and Tilman Fertitta acquiring Caesars Entertainment.
Ben Goodchild, M&A partner at Paul Weiss, argues that large deals continue closing despite uncertainty around oil, growth rates, and interest rates because they rest on long-term strategic rationale rather than near-term macro conditions. The split is stark: mega-deals are moving, smaller deals are stalling.
Regulatory window
Companies perceive a narrow window for transactions that would normally face prolonged antitrust scrutiny. The Justice Department's top antitrust official departed in February after clashing with Trump allies who favored more lenient oversight of large deals.
Portfolio pressure
Private equity firms face mounting pressure to move portfolio companies. They are sitting on a record number of holdings, many in software, a sector threatened by AI. They need to eventually sell or take these companies public but hesitate at today's depressed valuations.
Macro headwinds
US stocks posted their worst quarter in nearly four years, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ down 7%. Oil prices above $100 a barrel due to the Iran war could keep interest rates elevated longer, making debt financing more expensive and pricing harder to agree on between buyers and sellers.
The M&A landscape shows clear bifurcation. Mega-deals driven by strategic necessity and regulatory windows cluster in financial services, healthcare, and consumer goods. Eli Lilly's Cantessa deal and Biogen's acquisition of Pelis exemplify this pattern. Software dealmaking, by contrast, has stalled entirely.
Private credit retrenchment
Private credit, once the hottest asset class, is buckling under redemptions. Cliff Water, the firm that democratized private credit and grew from zero to nearly $50 billion under 72-year-old Steven Nesbitt, faces steep withdrawals as wealthy investors rethink exposure following high-profile defaults. Its fund-of-funds structure, investing alongside other funds rather than lending directly, is now treated as a vulnerability. Investors requested redemptions equivalent to 14% of its largest fund in Q1. Nesbitt has become a test case for whether the private credit industry can survive the loss of confidence. Blue Owl is capping redemptions at 5% to stem outflows at its own funds.