Bill Bishop on China's PLA purges, the $20B Taiwan arms package, and the DeepSeek moment redux
Feb 9, 2026 with Bill Bishop
Key Points
- Xi Jinping has consolidated military control by purging the Central Military Commission to just himself and one vice chairman, eliminating institutional checks within China's defense establishment.
- China's ambassador threatened to postpone Trump's Beijing visit unless the U.S. shelves a $20 billion Taiwan arms package, weaponizing diplomatic access to block military aid.
- DeepSeek is training its next model on Nvidia Blackwell chips, hardware China officially cannot access, suggesting U.S. semiconductor export controls are failing to slow Chinese AI progress.
Summary
China's military leadership is consolidated to an extreme degree. Xi Jinping has purged the Central Military Commission down to just two members—himself and one vice chairman—over the past year, eliminating the institutional checks that typically exist within China's defense establishment.
This purge overlaps with escalating U.S.-China tensions on Taiwan. The U.S. was preparing a $20 billion arms package for Taiwan when Chinese officials discovered the plan. China's ambassador responded forcefully, threatening to postpone Trump's planned visit to Beijing unless the package is shelved. Beijing is willing to weaponize diplomatic access to block military aid flows.
DeepSeek is preparing to launch its next model around Lunar New Year, reportedly training it on Nvidia's Blackwell chips. China is not supposed to have access to this hardware under current export controls. The move echoes DeepSeek's initial model release and shows that Chinese AI labs continue to obtain cutting-edge compute despite U.S. restrictions. The timing and capability gap raise questions about the effectiveness of semiconductor sanctions as a tool to slow Chinese AI progress.